June 16th, 2009

By Barbara Kessler
Green Right Now

The Obama Administration, via the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), issued a wake-up call today, a massive report on climate change called Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S..

It concludes that the effects of climate change are here, they’re worsening and they must be dealt with soon if future generations are to enjoy ample food, water and comfortable living conditions

Quite simply, it’s a message about impending disaster. Average temperatures are getting hotter and could rise as much as 10 degrees by the end of the century. Our use of fossil fuels is mainly to blame. If we don’t stop polluting the air with heat-trapping gases, the ensuing climate changes will continue to promulgate drought, flooding, severe storms, stressed agriculture, thinning glaciers, earlier snow melts, rising sea levels, declining ecosystems and deteriorating air quality.

End of story. Literally. (For life as we know it.)

On the one hand this report, the work of 13 government agencies assembled under the USGCRP and directed by top scientists, is brimming with stuff you’ve heard before — about wacky storms, vanishing water supplies and imperiled croplands.

On another level, though, it’s a clarion call that is scary as Hades, which is about how hot its getting.

Furthermore, the 188-page report makes it official, we must act now, not later, if we’re to stem the damage: “Implementing sizable and sustained reductions in carbon dioxide emissions as soon as possible would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change, and would be more effective than reductions of the same size initiated later.”

Key point there, doing something now matters. Waiting might render the rescue ineffective. It’s that tipping point thing.

A coalition of environmental groups responded to the release Tuesday with a short statement concurring that urgency is the right stance. “Scientists are telling us that our climate future is in our hands. We’re seeing the effects of climate change now and we have the power to prevent it from getting much worse. We owe it to ourselves, our children and our grandchildren to address global warming and dramatically lower heat-trapping emissions as quickly as possible,” said the group, which included the Union of Concerned Scientists, Environmental Defense Fund, Natural Resources Defense Council, Sierra Club, 1Sky and others.

Read the U.S. government full report at the website, where you also can pull out detailed information on each section of the country.

Here are the key findings (with page notations where you can read more within the full text):

1. Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced.
Global temperature has increased over the past 50 years. This observed increase is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. (p. 13)

2. Climate changes are underway in the United States and are projected to grow.
Climate-related changes are already observed in the United States and its coastal waters. These include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons, lengthening ice-free seasons in the ocean and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt, and alterations in river flows. These changes are projected to grow. (p. 27)

3. Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase.
Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. (p. 41-106, 107-152)

4. Climate change will stress water resources.
Water is an issue in every region, but the nature of the potential impacts varies. Drought, related to reduced precipitation, increased evaporation, and increased water loss from plants, is an important issue in many regions, especially in the West. Floods and water quality problems are likely to be amplified by climate change in most regions. Declines in mountain snowpack are important in the West and Alaska where snowpack provides vital natural water storage. (p. 41, 129, 135, 139)

5. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged.
Agriculture is considered one of the sectors most adaptable to changes in climate. However, increased heat, pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crop and livestock production. (p. 71)

6. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge.
Sea-level rise and storm surge place many U.S. coastal areas at increasing risk of erosion and flooding, especially along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, Pacific Islands, and parts of Alaska. Energy and transportation infrastructure and other property in coastal areas are very likely to be adversely affected. (p. 111, 139, 145, 149)

7. Threats to human health will increase.
Health impacts of climate change are related to heat stress, waterborne diseases, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects and rodents. Robust public health infrastructure can reduce the potential for negative impacts. (p. 89)

8. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses.
Climate change will combine with pollution, population growth, overuse of resources, urbanization, and other social, economic, and environmental stresses to create larger impacts than from any of these factors alone. (p. 99)

9. Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems.
There are a variety of thresholds in the climate system and ecosystems. These thresholds determine, for example, the presence of sea ice and permafrost, and the survival of species, from fish to insect pests, with implications for society. With further climate change, the crossing of additional thresholds is expected. (p. 76, 82, 115, 137, 142)

10. Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today. The amount and rate of future climate change depend primarily on current and future human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases and airborne particles. Responses involve reducing emissions to limit future warming, and adapting to the changes that are unavoidable. (p. 25, 29)

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