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By John DeFore

If and when the subject of overpopulation crosses their minds, most Americans think of places in Africa and Asia that already have enough people to stretch the limits of natural resources. But few seem to worry about it happening in our own back yard.

At a conference in Las Vegas last week, though, a Virginia Tech researcher argued that America’s population could grow to

an extent few people imagine — possibly tripling within the lifetimes of today’s infants. Dr. Arthur C. Nelson, a professor of urban affairs & planning and the director of Virginia Tech’s Metropolitan Institute, addressed an audience of planning professionals to predict that the population of the United States would hit one billion between the years of 2100 and 2120.

Considering that the nation’s infrastructure is having dramatic difficulties at our current population of just over 300 million, this is a troubling prospect. Moreover, Dr. Nelson’s projections assume no increase in current fertility rates; he believes the gain will come from increases in average lifespan and rising immigration, meaning that strains on infrastructure will be compounded by the challenge of tending to a growing community of the elderly.

While the time frame of Nelson’s prediction (which is disputed by many of his peers) may seem too distant to inspire alarm, large populations require the very things — subways and water supplies, for instance — that take decades to build. Nelson thinks the challenge is manageable. He points out that China and India handle billion-plus populations in areas smaller than the US, and imagines reconfiguring our cities in ways that would both house more humans and cut down on cars: If urban areas had public transportation so effective that people gave up their cars, he told USA Today, “we could accommodate half or more of the new population” on parking lots.

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